San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Willy AdamesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Reds- Sal StewartBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 5Adames homered to left (386 feet).1–2
- 4Stewart homered to right center (390 feet).0–2
- 3Steer homered to left center (401 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 51%
- ML SF -105 / CIN -115
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- CIN: Elo 52.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CIN -104
- SF +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.5 – 4.5 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +1 | SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +20 Elo | CIN 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 3.427th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −1.026th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 10th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 4–526th of 30 |
| 5th of 301518 | Opponent Elo | 149322nd of 30 |
| 21st of 301492 | Elo rating | 149718th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–10 | 9–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 4–8 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders | 7–6–3 | 9–6–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 11–8 CIN in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 19.