Cincinnati Reds at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Eugenio SuarezBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Brandon WilliamsonPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Twins- Austin MartinBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Martin hit sacrifice fly to right, Lee scored, Kreidler to third.2–1
- 4Suárez doubled to center, De La Cruz scored and Stewart scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 60%
- ML CIN +141 / MIN -171
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 50.2%, market 60.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -152
- CIN +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.8 – 4.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −3 | CIN: Brandon Williamson: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +1 Elo | MIN 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 60.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 5.45th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.97th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 305–2 | Road vs home | 7–34th of 30 |
| 21st of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 150412th of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Elo rating | 148424th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–9 | 12–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 10–8–1 | 10–8–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 5–4 MIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.