Cincinnati Reds at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting1-5, 2 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Myers singled to center, Steer scored.5–4
- 8Hinds sacrificed into double play, center to first to shortstop to second, Suárez scored, McLain thrown out at second.4–4
- 7De La Cruz singled to left, Hinds scored, Myers to second.3–4
- 5Lee singled to center, Bell scored, Larnach to second.2–4
- 4Stephenson singled to left, Suárez scored.2–3
- 3Keaschall singled to right, Martin scored.1–3
- 2Stephenson hit sacrifice fly to center, Stewart scored.1–2
- 1Jeffers tripled to center, Martin scored and Bell scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 54%
- ML CIN +109 / MIN -131
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 51.2%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -119
- CIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.8 – 4.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +1 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +9 Elo | MIN 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 5.27th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.88th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 306–2 | Road vs home | 7–47th of 30 |
| 20th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 150313th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Elo rating | 148323rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–9 | 12–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 10–9–1 | 10–9–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 6–4 MIN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.