Milwaukee Brewers at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Gary SanchezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Brandon SproatPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Torkelson homered to left center (382 feet).4–5
- 8Jones homered to left (397 feet).4–4
- 7Hamilton singled to left, Perkins scored, Ortiz to second.4–3
- 7Perkins doubled to left, Matos scored and Sánchez scored.3–3
- 6Dingler grounded into fielder's choice to second, Keith scored, Greene out at second.1–3
- 4Sánchez doubled to right, Contreras scored.1–2
- 1Greene homered to left center (406 feet), McGonigle scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- DET 67%
- ML MIL +189 / DET -233
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −16.4 pts
- DET: Elo 50.5%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- DET -202
- MIL +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 2.7 – 4.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +15 | MIL: Brandon Sproat: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +3 Elo | DET 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 60.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.98th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–5 | Road vs home | 9–21st of 30 |
| 27th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301543 | Elo rating | 150614th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–10 | 11–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 8–9 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–10 | 11–12–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 6–5 DET in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.