Cincinnati Reds at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting1-4
- Brandon WilliamsonPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Caminero grounded out to shortstop, Walls scored, Aranda to second, Díaz to third.1–6
- 5Vilade singled to right, Díaz scored, Aranda to second.1–5
- 5Higgins hit sacrifice fly to right, Lowe scored, Steer to third.1–4
- 3Caminero homered to right center (404 feet).0–4
- 2Díaz singled to center, Williamson scored, Walls to third.0–3
- 2Simpson hit sacrifice fly to right, DeLuca scored on error, Williamson safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Benson.0–2
- 2Williamson singled to center, Vilade scored, DeLuca to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 56%
- ML CIN +119 / TB -143
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- TB: Elo 51.1%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -129
- CIN +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.0 – 4.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +8 | CIN: Brandon Williamson: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +8 Elo | TB 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.528th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.722nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–2 | Road vs home | 4–418th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 150512th of 30 |
| 14th of 301508 | Elo rating | 149417th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–9 | 13–10 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 12–5 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–10–1 | 15–6–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 7–4 TB in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.