Cincinnati Reds at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting3-6, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Chase BurnsPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Steven MatzPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9DeLuca doubled to first, Caminero scored and Aranda scored, Williamson to third.12–6
- 9Williamson walked, Simpson scored, Aranda to second, Caminero to third.12–4
- 9Aranda walked, Palacios scored, Caminero to second, Simpson to third.12–3
- 9De La Cruz homered to left center (406 feet).12–2
- 7Stewart hit sacrifice fly to center, Myers scored, De La Cruz to second, McLain to third.11–2
- 7De La Cruz singled to right, Hinds scored, McLain to second, Myers to third.10–2
- 6Aranda homered to right (366 feet), Caminero scored.9–2
- 6Stewart singled to center, McLain scored and De La Cruz scored.9–0
- 6De La Cruz grounded into fielder's choice to first, Myers scored.7–0
- 6McLain doubled to left, Hayes scored, Myers to third.6–0
- 5Steer homered to left center (387 feet).5–0
- 2Myers homered to left center (396 feet).4–0
- 2Hayes homered to right (363 feet).3–0
- 1De La Cruz homered to right center (414 feet), Myers scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 50%
- ML CIN -110 / TB -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- TB: Elo 52.8%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TB -100
- CIN -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.8 – 3.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +5 | CIN: Chase Burns: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TB: Steven Matz: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +19 Elo | TB 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 14th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.519th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–2 | Road vs home | 4–315th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 150412th of 30 |
| 15th of 301505 | Elo rating | 149716th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–9 | 13–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 5–4 |
| Underdog | 11–5 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 12–10–1 | 14–6–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 6–4 TB in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.