Cincinnati Reds at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Sal StewartBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Rhett LowderPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Rays- Chandler SimpsonBatting2-5
- Jesse ScholtensPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Stewart scored on Martin wild pitch.6–1
- 7Stewart scored on Martin wild pitch.6–1
- 6Hinds doubled to left, Steer scored and Suárez scored.5–1
- 3De La Cruz singled to right, Friedl scored, McLain to second.3–1
- 1Díaz walked, Simpson scored, Aranda to second, Caminero to third.2–1
- 1Stewart homered to center (424 feet), McLain scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 53%
- ML CIN +104 / TB -126
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- TB: Elo 49.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -114
- CIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.9 – 4.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −21 | CIN: Rhett Lowder: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TB: Jesse Scholtens: team allows 1.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +7 Elo | CIN 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.911th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.225th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.315th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Road vs home | 4–25th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 150412th of 30 |
| 15th of 301503 | Elo rating | 150016th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–9 | 13–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 10–5 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 12–9–1 | 14–5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 5–4 TB in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.