Detroit Tigers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kevin McGonigleBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Drew AndersonPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Reds- Sal StewartBatting3-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Friedl homered to right (368 feet).2–9
- 6Stewart singled to right, Friedl scored and Hayes scored, De La Cruz to third.2–8
- 4Torkelson homered to center (395 feet).2–6
- 2De La Cruz homered to left center (415 feet), Hayes scored.1–6
- 1Lowe homered to right (350 feet).1–4
- 1Stewart homered to left (366 feet), McLain scored and De La Cruz scored.1–3
- 1McGonigle homered to center (405 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 50%
- ML DET -112 / CIN -108
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- DET: Elo 44.7%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -102
- CIN +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.8 – 4.7 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +5 | DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +37 Elo | CIN 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.111th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.4 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 30 |
| 28th of 304–11 | Road vs home | 7–614th of 30 |
| 16th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149223rd of 30 |
| 15th of 301506 | Elo rating | 150712th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–15 | 15–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–10 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders | 13–12–2 | 14–11–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 5–5 CIN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 10.