Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew PainterPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Mateo scored on Painter wild pitch.3–5
- 6Mateo scored on Painter wild pitch.3–5
- 6Harris II doubled to center, Dubón and Smith scored.3–4
- 5Harper homered to left center (389 feet).3–2
- 3Acuña Jr. homered to left (410 feet), White scored.2–2
- 3Turner homered to right (375 feet), Stubbs scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 60%
- ML PHI +139 / ATL -168
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- ATL: Elo 53.6%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- ATL -150
- PHI +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.1 – 4.9 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −6 | PHI: Andrew Painter: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +25 Elo | ATL 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 5.81st of 30 |
| 28th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 3.42nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.0 | Margin | +2.41st of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Road vs home | 8–45th of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 148727th of 30 |
| 11th of 301508 | Elo rating | 15266th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–20 | 19–7 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–17 | 12–7 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 7–0 |
| Overs–unders | 13–11–1 | 12–12–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 22–24 ATL in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 46.