Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Nationals- Daylen LileBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Olson hit sacrifice fly to center, Yastrzemski scored, White to third.9–4
- 9White reached on bunt single to first, Mateo scored, Yastrzemski to second.8–4
- 6Young reached on throwing error by third baseman Riley, Abrams scored, Young to second.7–4
- 6Smith grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Albies scored, Harris II out at second.7–3
- 6Harris II singled to center, Riley scored, Albies to third.6–3
- 6Albies singled to left, Baldwin scored, Riley to second.5–3
- 6Baldwin doubled to left, Acuña Jr. scored and Yastrzemski scored.4–3
- 4Lile homered to right (376 feet).2–3
- 4Olson homered to center (419 feet), Baldwin scored.2–2
- 1Young singled to right, Abrams scored and House scored, Lile to third.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 58%
- ML ATL -156 / WSH +129
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- ATL: Elo 57.8%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -140
- WSH +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.4 – 3.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | 0 | ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +54 Elo | ATL 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 59.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 1st of 303.0 | Runs allowed | 6.130th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.6 | Margin | −0.622nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Road vs home | 2–730th of 30 |
| 20th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15172nd of 30 |
| 6th of 301524 | Elo rating | 145328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–6 | 12–10 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–6 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 7–0 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders | 9–12–1 | 15–6–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 22–17 WSH in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 39.