Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew PainterPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Albies doubled to left, Olson scored, Riley to third.4–2
- 5Riley reached on infield single to third, Acuña Jr. scored, Olson to second.3–2
- 5Olson grounded into fielder's choice to second, Harris II scored, Baldwin out at second, Acuña Jr. to third.2–2
- 3Harris II homered to right (376 feet).1–2
- 1Schwarber homered to right center (381 feet), Turner scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 52%
- ML ATL -118 / PHI -102
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 45.6%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- ATL -107
- PHI +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.1 – 3.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +5 | ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Andrew Painter: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +31 Elo | PHI 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 3.626th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.0 | Runs allowed | 5.528th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.6 | Margin | −1.830th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 2nd of 306–3 | Road vs home | 5–926th of 30 |
| 21st of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 148925th of 30 |
| 6th of 301523 | Elo rating | 15178th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–6 | 4–16 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 9–6 | 4–16 |
| Underdog | 6–0 | — |
| Overs–unders | 9–11–1 | 10–9–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 23–22 PHI in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 45.