Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Austin RileyBatting2-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting3-4
- Taijuan WalkerPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Riley homered to right center (374 feet).9–0
- 8Harris II homered to right center (367 feet).8–0
- 3Smith homered to right center (406 feet).7–0
- 2Riley homered to right center (380 feet), Acuña Jr. scored and Olson scored.6–0
- 2Olson singled to right, Harris II scored, Acuña Jr. to second.3–0
- 1Yastrzemski reached on infield single to second, Baldwin scored, Olson to third.2–0
- 1Albies grounded out to second, Acuña Jr. scored, Olson to second, Baldwin to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 52%
- ML ATL -118 / PHI -102
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 46.7%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- ATL -107
- PHI +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.8 – 4.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −12 | ATL: Martin Perez: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +23 Elo | PHI 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.021st of 30 |
| 1st of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 5.427th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.3 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 6th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 5–726th of 30 |
| 21st of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 148527th of 30 |
| 10th of 301517 | Elo rating | 15226th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–6 | 4–14 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 9–6 | 4–14 |
| Underdog | 4–0 | — |
| Overs–unders | 9–9–1 | 10–7–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–1–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 21–22 PHI in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 43.