Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting3-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching5.1 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Harper homered to left center (406 feet).11–2
- 9Swanson grounded out to shortstop, Suzuki scored, Happ to third.11–1
- 7Swanson homered to left (389 feet).10–1
- 6Hoerner singled to right, Crow-Armstrong scored and Shaw scored.9–1
- 6Shaw doubled to right, Swanson scored and Amaya scored, Crow-Armstrong to third.7–1
- 5Hoerner homered to center (400 feet), Shaw scored.5–1
- 3Bregman scored on Luzardo wild pitch.3–1
- 3Bregman scored on Luzardo wild pitch.3–1
- 3Hoerner scored on throwing error by catcher Realmuto, Bregman stole third.2–1
- 3Hoerner scored on throwing error by catcher Realmuto, Bregman stole third.2–1
- 3Hoerner singled to center, Shaw scored.1–1
- 1Turner homered to center (423 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 56%
- ML CHC +117 / PHI -141
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.4%, market 55.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -127
- CHC +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.2 – 4.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +3 | CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +30 Elo | PHI 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 55.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.124th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 9th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 5–625th of 30 |
| 24th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 148127th of 30 |
| 6th of 301526 | Elo rating | 15265th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–11 | 4–13 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | 4–13 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | — |
| Overs–unders | 10–5–2 | 9–7–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 6–14 PHI in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 20.