Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Carson KellyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Edmundo SosaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kelly homered to center (422 feet), Suzuki scored and Amaya scored.10–4
- 8Turner singled to right, Sosa scored.7–4
- 6Bregman singled to right, Hoerner scored and Swanson scored, Busch to second.7–3
- 6Hoerner singled to center, Crow-Armstrong scored and Kelly scored, Swanson to third.5–3
- 5Bregman singled to center, Swanson scored, Busch to second.3–3
- 3Happ doubled to left, Busch scored, Bregman to third.2–3
- 3Hoerner singled to center, Crow-Armstrong scored.1–3
- 2Sosa homered to center (442 feet), Marsh scored and Realmuto scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 57%
- ML CHC +124 / PHI -149
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.7%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -134
- CHC +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.7 – 5.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | 0 | CHC: Riley Martin (no track record yet) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +33 Elo | PHI 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.621st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–4 | Road vs home | 5–517th of 30 |
| 24th of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 147828th of 30 |
| 7th of 301523 | Elo rating | 15294th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–11 | 4–12 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | 4–12 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | — |
| Overs–unders | 9–5–2 | 8–7–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 5–14 PHI in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 19.