Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching4.1 IP, 9 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Suzuki singled to left, Crow-Armstrong scored, Shaw to second.7–13
- 8Amaya scored, Shaw safe at first, Crow-Armstrong safe at third on fielding error by third baseman Bohm.6–13
- 8Crow-Armstrong singled to right, Ballesteros scored and Swanson scored on throwing error by right fielder Marsh, Crow-Armstrong to second, Amaya safe at third on error.5–13
- 8Ballesteros singled to center, Happ scored.3–13
- 7Marsh reached on infield single to shortstop, Sosa scored. Marsh to second, Kemp safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Swanson.2–13
- 6Realmuto singled to right, García scored, Stott to third.2–12
- 6Bohm grounded out to shortstop, Harper scored, García to third.2–11
- 6García doubled to left, Schwarber scored, Harper to third.2–10
- 5Realmuto singled to center, Stott scored.2–9
- 5Stott singled to center, Marsh scored, Stott to second.2–8
- 5Bohm hit sacrifice fly to center, García scored, Marsh to third.2–7
- 5Marsh doubled to center, Schwarber scored and Harper scored, García to third.2–6
- 4Swanson homered to right (359 feet), Kelly scored.2–4
- 3Schwarber homered to center (417 feet), Turner scored.0–4
- 2Realmuto singled to right, Marsh scored.0–2
- 1Schwarber homered to center (414 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 62%
- ML CHC +153 / PHI -186
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 53.3%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -165
- CHC +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.7 – 4.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +4 | CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +23 Elo | PHI 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 60.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.526th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −1.127th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 10th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 4–525th of 30 |
| 25th of 301483 | Opponent Elo | 147530th of 30 |
| 6th of 301525 | Elo rating | 15275th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–10 | 3–12 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | 3–12 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | — |
| Overs–unders | 8–5–2 | 7–7–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 5–13 PHI in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 18.