Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Austin RileyBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Chris SalePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Phillies- Felix ReyesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 3Dubón singled to center, Albies scored and Olson scored, Riley to second.3–1
- 3Riley reached on infield single to pitcher, Baldwin scored, Olson to second, Albies to third.1–1
- 2Reyes homered to right (348 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 54%
- ML ATL +109 / PHI -132
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 50.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -119
- ATL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.3 – 3.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +1 | ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.78 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +1 Elo | PHI 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.8 | Runs scored | 3.823rd of 30 |
| 1st of 303.1 | Runs allowed | 5.628th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.6 | Margin | −1.830th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 305–3 | Road vs home | 5–826th of 30 |
| 21st of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 148827th of 30 |
| 6th of 301521 | Elo rating | 15197th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–6 | 4–15 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 9–6 | 4–15 |
| Underdog | 5–0 | — |
| Overs–unders | 9–10–1 | 10–8–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 22–22 PHI in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 44.