San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Nationals- Daylen LileBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ramos walked, Arraez scored, Lee to second, Chapman to third.10–5
- 7Wood homered to left center (441 feet).9–5
- 7Schmitt homered to left (399 feet).9–4
- 6Tena singled to center, Lile scored.8–4
- 4Lile homered to center (418 feet), Wiemer scored.8–3
- 4Chapman singled to left, Adames scored.8–1
- 4Gilbert homered to right center (389 feet).7–1
- 3House grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop second, Tena scored, House to first on error by first baseman Devers, Ruiz out at second.6–1
- 2Devers doubled to right, Chapman scored.6–0
- 2Chapman singled to center, Gilbert scored and Adames scored.5–0
- 2Ramos homered to center (416 feet), Schmitt scored and Lee scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 56%
- ML SF -143 / WSH +119
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- SF: Elo 52.3%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- SF -129
- WSH +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.5 – 4.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −3 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Zack Littell: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +16 Elo | SF 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 59.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 5.63rd of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 6.230th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −0.521st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 1–530th of 30 |
| 7th of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 15201st of 30 |
| 21st of 301491 | Elo rating | 145528th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–11 | 11–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 6–9 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 8–8–3 | 13–5–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 8–11 WSH in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 19.