San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cade CavalliPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 12Chapman singled to left, Arraez scored.7–6
- 9House singled to center, Wood scored, Mead thrown out at third.6–6
- 7Devers singled to left, Adames scored.6–5
- 6Ramos homered to left (378 feet), Lee scored.5–5
- 3Schmitt doubled to left, Chapman scored on fielding error by left fielder Lile and Arraez scored.3–5
- 2Tena singled to left, Wood scored, García Jr. to second.1–5
- 2García Jr. singled to right, Millas scored and Vivas scored, Wood to third.1–4
- 2Wood hit by pitch, Nuñez scored, Millas to second, Vivas to third.1–2
- 2Gilbert singled to right, Ramos scored.1–1
- 1Wood homered to left center (406 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 51%
- ML SF -115 / WSH -105
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- SF: Elo 55.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SF -104
- WSH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.8 – 4.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −19 | SF: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Cade Cavalli: team allows 0.93 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +39 Elo | SF 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 5.63rd of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 6.330th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.823rd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 1–630th of 30 |
| 9th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15201st of 30 |
| 18th of 301494 | Elo rating | 145228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–11 | 11–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 6–9 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8–3 | 14–5–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 9–11 WSH in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 20.