Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bohm hit sacrifice fly to center, García scored.4–7
- 8Busch scored, Crow-Armstrong to second, Kingery to third on wild pitch by Alvarado.3–7
- 8Busch scored on Alvarado wild pitch, Crow-Armstrong to second on wild pitch by Alvarado, Kingery to third on wild pitch by Alvarado.3–7
- 8Harper homered to center (406 feet), Schwarber scored.3–6
- 7Suzuki homered to left (441 feet), Bregman scored.1–6
- 7Hoerner homered to left (371 feet).1–4
- 6Busch singled to center, Happ scored and Hoerner scored, Kelly to third.1–3
- 6Schwarber homered to right center (386 feet).1–1
- 5Ballesteros walked, Happ scored, Swanson to second, Suzuki to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 53%
- ML PHI +104 / CHC -126
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- CHC: Elo 55.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -114
- PHI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.1 – 4.4 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −5 | PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +41 Elo | CHC 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 5.36th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 3.87th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.9 | Margin | +1.53rd of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 20th of 303–4 | Road vs home | 8–57th of 30 |
| 20th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149024th of 30 |
| 10th of 301513 | Elo rating | 15374th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–18 | 10–12 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–17 | 6–9 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 10–11–1 | 12–8–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 14–8 CHC in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 22.