New York Mets at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Tyrone TaylorBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Happ homered to left (411 feet), Busch scored.4–12
- 8Alvarez reached on infield single to third, Lindor scored.4–10
- 7Swanson hit sacrifice fly to left, Kelly scored on error, Crow-Armstrong safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Taylor.3–10
- 7Shaw scored on Manaea wild pitch, Crow-Armstrong to second on wild pitch by Manaea, Kelly to third on wild pitch by Manaea.3–9
- 7Shaw scored on Manaea wild pitch, Crow-Armstrong to second on wild pitch by Manaea, Kelly to third on wild pitch by Manaea.3–9
- 7Shaw doubled to center, Suzuki scored.3–8
- 4Swanson scored, Happ safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Baty, Busch to second, Hoerner to third.3–7
- 2Hoerner homered to left (392 feet), Swanson scored.3–6
- 2Taylor singled to center, Melendez scored and Semien scored, Taylor out stretching at second.3–4
- 2Semien doubled to left, Alvarez scored, Melendez to third.1–4
- 1Ballesteros homered to left (365 feet), Bregman scored and Suzuki scored.0–4
- 1Suzuki singled to right, Busch scored, Bregman to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 57%
- ML NYM +124 / CHC -150
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 57.5%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -134
- NYM +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.7 – 5.3 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +3 | NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +52 Elo | CHC 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 5.27th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.14th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Road vs home | 4–525th of 30 |
| 13th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149122nd of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Elo rating | 15305th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–12 | 7–11 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–9 | 3–8 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9–2 | 11–5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–2 | 8–1–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 11–8 CHC in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.