New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- MJ MelendezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Clay HolmesPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Dalton RushingBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Shohei OhtaniPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Semien singled to center, Bichette scored, Alvarez to second.2–8
- 8Tucker homered to right (374 feet).1–8
- 8Rushing homered to center (412 feet), T. Hernández scored, Muncy scored and Pages scored.1–7
- 6T. Hernández homered to right center (370 feet).1–3
- 5Melendez hit a ground rule double, Benge scored, Semien to third.1–2
- 2Kim homered to right center (372 feet), Rushing scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 63%
- ML NYM +159 / LAD -194
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 61.1%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -171
- NYM +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.2 – 4.3 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1566 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +2 | NYM: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +78 Elo | LAD 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 65.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 64.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 5.71st of 30 |
| 10th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.42nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +2.41st of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 8–33rd of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150214th of 30 |
| 16th of 301501 | Elo rating | 15661st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–11 | 9–8 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–9 | 9–8 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | — |
| Overs–unders | 7–9–2 | 7–9–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 11–16 LAD in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 27.