New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Jorge PolancoBatting1-3
- David PetersonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Dodgers- Andy PagesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Justin WrobleskiPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 3Pages homered to left (364 feet), Tucker scored and Freeman scored.0–4
- 1Smith singled to center, Ohtani scored, Tucker to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 59%
- ML NYM +135 / LAD -163
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- LAD: Elo 58.8%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -146
- NYM +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.8 – 4.7 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −31 | NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Justin Wrobleski: team allows 1.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +61 Elo | LAD 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 6.11st of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.75th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +2.32nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 6th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 6–37th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 150215th of 30 |
| 14th of 301504 | Elo rating | 15631st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–10 | 8–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–9 | 8–7 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | — |
| Overs–unders | 7–7–2 | 7–7–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–2–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 11–14 LAD in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 25.