New York Mets at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Mark VientosBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Cubs- Carson KellyBatting1-1, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bichette scored, Alvarez safe at first on throwing error by second baseman Hoerner, Robert Jr. to second.2–4
- 6Kelly homered to left center (405 feet), Happ scored and Suzuki scored.1–4
- 2Happ homered to center (431 feet).1–1
- 2Vientos homered to left center (434 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 52%
- ML NYM -102 / CHC -118
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.0 pts
- CHC: Elo 57.7%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- CHC -107
- NYM +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.2 – 4.3 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +7 | NYM: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +54 Elo | CHC 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 5.64th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +1.43rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–7 | Road vs home | 5–519th of 30 |
| 10th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149123rd of 30 |
| 17th of 301496 | Elo rating | 15324th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–13 | 8–11 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–9 | 4–8 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9–2 | 12–5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 8–1–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 11–9 CHC in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 20.