New York Mets at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- MJ MelendezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- David PetersonPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Hoerner hit sacrifice fly to right, Crow-Armstrong scored.1–2
- 9Conforto doubled to right, Kingery scored.1–1
- 5Melendez homered to right center (387 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 56%
- ML NYM +119 / CHC -143
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- CHC: Elo 56.9%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -129
- NYM +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.7 – 4.3 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −10 | NYM: Tobias Myers: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +48 Elo | CHC 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.010th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +1.53rd of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–8 | Road vs home | 6–516th of 30 |
| 8th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149124th of 30 |
| 18th of 301495 | Elo rating | 15344th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–14 | 9–11 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–9 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–10–2 | 12–6–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 11–10 CHC in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 21.