Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Justin CrawfordBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 4Crawford doubled to left, Stott scored.1–5
- 3Conforto hit sacrifice fly to center, Busch scored.0–5
- 2Swanson homered to center (424 feet), Ballesteros scored and Crow-Armstrong scored.0–4
- 2Amaya grounded into double play, third to second to first, Happ scored, Conforto out at second, Ballesteros to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 50%
- ML PHI -108 / CHC -112
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.7 pts
- CHC: Elo 56.1%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- CHC -102
- PHI +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.7 – 3.8 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −2 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +43 Elo | CHC 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 5.35th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 3.99th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.8 | Margin | +1.43rd of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 12th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 7–512th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 149025th of 30 |
| 10th of 301515 | Elo rating | 15354th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–17 | 9–12 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–17 | 5–9 |
| Underdog | — | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 10–10–1 | 12–7–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 14–7 CHC in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 21.