Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Edmundo SosaBatting2-2, 1 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Crow-Armstrong singled to center, Ballesteros scored.2–7
- 5Suzuki homered to center (388 feet), Happ scored.2–6
- 3Busch homered to left center (375 feet).2–4
- 3Happ singled to left, Bregman scored.2–3
- 2Crow-Armstrong doubled to center, Amaya scored.2–2
- 2Crawford grounded out to second, Bohm scored, Sosa to third.2–1
- 2Sosa doubled to left, Reyes scored, Bohm to third.1–1
- 1Happ grounded into fielder's choice to second, Hoerner scored, Bregman out at second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 63%
- ML PHI +159 / CHC -193
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- CHC: Elo 56.5%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- CHC -171
- PHI +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.2 – 4.3 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | 0 | PHI: Kyle Backhus (no track record yet) · CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +45 Elo | CHC 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 5.44th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 3.86th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.0 | Margin | +1.63rd of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 21st of 303–5 | Road vs home | 9–55th of 30 |
| 19th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149123rd of 30 |
| 10th of 301511 | Elo rating | 15394th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–19 | 11–12 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–17 | 7–9 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 11–11–1 | 13–8–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 14–9 CHC in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 23.