Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Didier FuentesPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Nationals- Daylen LileBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 6Wood homered to left center (413 feet).8–6
- 6Wiemer homered to left center (395 feet).8–5
- 4Olson homered to right (376 feet), Heim scored and Acuña Jr. scored.8–4
- 3Harris II homered to left center (394 feet).5–4
- 2Acuña Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Yastrzemski scored.4–4
- 2Harris II homered to right (414 feet), Albies scored.3–4
- 1Vivas doubled to right, Young scored.1–4
- 1Lile homered to center (407 feet), Wood scored and García Jr. scored.1–3
- 1Baldwin homered to right center (391 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 60%
- ML ATL -168 / WSH +139
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 54.0%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- ATL -150
- WSH +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.9 – 4.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −28 | −6 | ATL: Didier Fuentes: team allows 1.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · WSH: Zack Littell: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +28 Elo | ATL 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 5.72nd of 30 |
| 1st of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 6.130th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.3 | Margin | −0.518th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–4 | Road vs home | 3–830th of 30 |
| 24th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 15182nd of 30 |
| 6th of 301523 | Elo rating | 145528th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–7 | 13–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–7 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 7–0 | 12–9 |
| Overs–unders | 11–12–1 | 17–6–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 23–18 WSH in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 41.