Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose SuarezPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting4-5, 3 RBI
- Foster GriffinPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Mead homered to left (395 feet), Nuñez scored and House scored.4–11
- 8Riley grounded out to shortstop, Baldwin scored, Olson to second.4–8
- 7Young grounded out to second, Wood scored, García Jr. to third.3–8
- 7García Jr. doubled to center, Mead scored and Millas scored, Wood to third.3–7
- 5García Jr. singled to center, House scored, Wood to second.3–5
- 5White homered to right (348 feet).3–4
- 3Baldwin homered to center (438 feet).2–4
- 2Wood homered to left center (412 feet).1–4
- 2Harris II doubled to right, Dubón scored.1–3
- 1Nuñez singled to center, Young scored, Lile to second, Abrams to third.0–3
- 1Lile walked, García Jr. scored, Abrams to second, Young to third.0–2
- 1Young singled to center, Wood scored, Young to second, García Jr. to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 59%
- ML ATL -163 / WSH +135
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 58.6%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -146
- WSH +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.7 – 3.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +8 | ATL: Reynaldo Lopez: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Foster Griffin: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +60 Elo | ATL 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 5.43rd of 30 |
| 1st of 303.0 | Runs allowed | 6.230th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.7 | Margin | −0.823rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–3 | Road vs home | 2–830th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 15182nd of 30 |
| 6th of 301527 | Elo rating | 145128th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–6 | 12–11 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–6 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 7–0 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 10–12–1 | 16–6–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 23–17 WSH in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 40.