Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- JR RitchiePitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cade CavalliPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Albies homered to right center (396 feet).7–2
- 7Harris II doubled to center, Albies scored.6–2
- 7Albies singled to right, Olson scored and Riley scored.5–2
- 7Baldwin scored on Varland wild pitch, Riley to second on wild pitch by Varland, Olson to third on wild pitch by Varland.3–2
- 7Baldwin scored on Varland wild pitch, Riley to second on wild pitch by Varland, Olson to third on wild pitch by Varland.3–2
- 4Abrams homered to center (426 feet).2–2
- 4Harris II singled to center, Riley scored.2–1
- 4Albies hit sacrifice fly to right, Olson scored, Riley to third.1–1
- 1Wood homered to right (387 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 55%
- ML ATL -136 / WSH +113
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- ATL: Elo 58.5%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -123
- WSH +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.7 – 4.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −16 | ATL: JR Ritchie (no track record yet) · WSH: Cade Cavalli: team allows 0.82 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +60 Elo | ATL 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.7 | Runs scored | 5.72nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 6.230th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.3 | Margin | −0.521st of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–4 | Road vs home | 3–930th of 30 |
| 25th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 15182nd of 30 |
| 6th of 301524 | Elo rating | 145428th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–7 | 13–12 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–7 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 7–0 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 12–12–1 | 18–6–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 24–18 WSH in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 42.