Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Brandon MarshBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting2-6, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Swanson singled to right, Happ scored, Kelly to second, Suzuki to third.7–8
- 9García homered to left (378 feet).7–7
- 8Suzuki homered to left center (393 feet).6–7
- 8Sosa singled to center, Moore scored, Marsh to third.6–6
- 7Stubbs hit sacrifice fly to center, Bohm scored.5–6
- 7Stott scored on error, Crawford safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Bregman, Crawford safe at second on error, Bohm safe at third on error.4–6
- 7Marsh homered to left center (339 feet).3–6
- 6Busch grounded out to first, Happ scored, Kelly to second, Suzuki to third.2–6
- 4Happ homered to left (429 feet).2–5
- 4Marsh singled to left, Harper scored.2–4
- 3Busch homered to center (421 feet), Suzuki scored and Kelly scored.1–4
- 2Swanson hit sacrifice fly to right, Kelly scored.1–1
- 2Marsh homered to right center (425 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 51%
- ML PHI -115 / CHC -105
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 42.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -104
- CHC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.8 – 4.7 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +4 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +50 Elo | CHC 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 5.54th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 3.75th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.1 | Margin | +1.73rd of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 21st of 303–6 | Road vs home | 10–54th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149123rd of 30 |
| 13th of 301509 | Elo rating | 15414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–20 | 12–12 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–17 | 8–9 |
| Underdog | 0–3 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 12–11–1 | 14–8–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 14–10 CHC in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 24.