Detroit Tigers at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Wenceel PerezBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brant HurterPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pérez homered to center (415 feet), Keith scored.2–5
- 8Albies homered to left (378 feet), Olson scored.0–5
- 7Yastrzemski singled to right, Dubón scored.0–3
- 3Olson hit sacrifice fly to center, Acuña Jr. scored.0–2
- 3Acuña Jr. doubled to left, Yastrzemski scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 53%
- ML DET +102 / ATL -122
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 55.3%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -111
- DET +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.1 – 4.4 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −4 | DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Martin Perez: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +37 Elo | ATL 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.71st of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.52nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +2.22nd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 27th of 305–12 | Road vs home | 10–55th of 30 |
| 11th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 148927th of 30 |
| 15th of 301507 | Elo rating | 15286th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–16 | 21–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 8–10 | 14–8 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 7–0 |
| Overs–unders | 15–12–2 | 13–13–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–8 ATL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.