Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting2-3, 4 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Baldwin singled to left, White scored.8–5
- 10Marsh singled to right, Moore scored and Harper scored.8–4
- 10Harper singled to left, Stubbs scored and Turner scored, Schwarber to second.6–4
- 8Harper hit sacrifice fly to center, Schwarber scored.4–4
- 6Harris II singled to left, Albies scored.3–4
- 6Albies doubled to center, Olson scored.3–3
- 5Harper reached on infield single to shortstop, Marchán scored, Turner to second.3–2
- 4Riley doubled to left, Olson scored, Albies to third.2–2
- 4Harris II hit sacrifice fly to right, Baldwin scored, Olson to third.2–1
- 4Stott tripled to first, Marsh scored.2–0
- 1García tripled to left, Harper scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 53%
- ML PHI +105 / ATL -127
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 54.1%, market 53.4%
- Fair odds
- ATL -115
- PHI +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.1 – 4.4 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +4 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +29 Elo | ATL 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 53.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 5.71st of 30 |
| 28th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 3.41st of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.0 | Margin | +2.41st of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 9–12nd of 30 |
| 25th of 303–8 | Road vs home | 9–42nd of 30 |
| 15th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 148727th of 30 |
| 13th of 301507 | Elo rating | 15286th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–21 | 20–7 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 4–17 | 13–7 |
| Underdog | 1–4 | 7–0 |
| Overs–unders | 13–12–1 | 12–13–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 22–25 ATL in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 47.