Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris SalePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Schwarber homered to right (377 feet), Marchán scored.2–6
- 2Baldwin singled to right, Acuña Jr. scored.0–6
- 2White homered to left (361 feet), Dubón scored.0–5
- 1Olson homered to right (399 feet), Acuña Jr. scored and Baldwin scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 66%
- ML PHI +179 / ATL -219
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 59.0%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- ATL -192
- PHI +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.3 – 4.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +20 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.99 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +63 Elo | ATL 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 61.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 5.71st of 30 |
| 28th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 3.53rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.9 | Margin | +2.22nd of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–8 | Road vs home | 9–55th of 30 |
| 16th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 148826th of 30 |
| 13th of 301509 | Elo rating | 15266th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–21 | 20–8 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 4–17 | 13–8 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 7–0 |
| Overs–unders | 14–12–1 | 13–13–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 23–25 ATL in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 48.