Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Danny JansenBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Osuna doubled to left, Burger scored.5–4
- 5Greene grounded into fielder's choice to second, Carpenter scored, Dingler out at second.4–4
- 4Lee singled to right, Torkelson scored, Pérez to third.4–3
- 4Pérez singled to left, Greene scored and Jones scored, Torkelson to second.4–2
- 3Pederson hit sacrifice fly to left, Carter scored.4–0
- 3Jung singled to left, Nimmo scored, Seager to second, Carter to third.3–0
- 3Jansen homered to left (377 feet).2–0
- 1Jung singled to left, Nimmo scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 53%
- ML TEX +103 / DET -124
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- DET: Elo 50.0%, market 52.9%
- Fair odds
- DET -112
- TEX +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.9 – 4.1 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −17 | TEX: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.85 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET 0 Elo | DET 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 52.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.37th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 12th of 308–8 | Road vs home | 10–21st of 30 |
| 3rd of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 150510th of 30 |
| 10th of 301511 | Elo rating | 150613th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–16 | 14–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 8–11 |
| Underdog | 9–6 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders | 12–17–2 | 15–15–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 12–8 DET in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 20.