Detroit Tigers at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Matt VierlingBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting2-4
- Bryce ElderPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Dingler doubled to left, Vierling scored, Lee thrown out at home.5–2
- 9Vierling singled to left, Pérez scored on fielding error by left fielder Yastrzemski, Vierling to second.4–2
- 8Torres hit sacrifice fly to center, Vierling scored.3–2
- 8Vierling doubled to left, Carpenter scored.2–2
- 6Vierling singled to right, Greene scored, Torkelson to second.1–2
- 3Dubón singled to center, Albies scored.0–2
- 2White singled to left, Dubón scored, Farmer to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 53%
- ML DET +105 / ATL -126
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- ATL: Elo 56.5%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -114
- DET +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.1 – 4.4 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −3 | DET: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +46 Elo | ATL 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.61st of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.42nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +2.21st of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 28th of 305–14 | Road vs home | 12–52nd of 30 |
| 12th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149126th of 30 |
| 14th of 301504 | Elo rating | 15305th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–18 | 23–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 8–11 | 15–8 |
| Underdog | 5–7 | 8–0 |
| Overs–unders | 15–14–2 | 13–15–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–10 ATL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.