Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Blaze AlexanderBatting3-4
- Shane BazPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Cam SchlittlerPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Domínguez singled to center, Bellinger scored.1–12
- 8Bellinger tripled to right, Grisham scored and Judge scored.1–11
- 8Judge singled to left, Caballero scored and Wells scored, Grisham to second.1–9
- 8Grisham walked, Chisholm Jr. scored, Caballero to second, Wells to third.1–7
- 6Caballero doubled to left, Wells scored, McMahon to third.1–6
- 6McMahon singled to center, Chisholm Jr. scored, Wells to second.1–5
- 6Domínguez scored on Baz wild pitch, Chisholm Jr. to third on wild pitch by Baz.1–4
- 6Domínguez scored on Baz wild pitch, Chisholm Jr. to third on wild pitch by Baz.1–4
- 6Cowser walked, Beavers scored, Taveras to second, Alonso to third.1–3
- 3Bellinger hit sacrifice fly to left, Grisham scored, Judge to second.0–3
- 1Judge homered to right center (416 feet), Grisham scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 67%
- ML BAL +189 / NYY -232
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- NYY: Elo 65.2%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -202
- BAL +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.5 – 5.0 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +15 | BAL: Shane Baz: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +109 Elo | NYY 65.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 65.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 65.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.33rd of 30 |
| 27th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 3.42nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +1.92nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 21st of 306–10 | Road vs home | 11–54th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149122nd of 30 |
| 25th of 301480 | Elo rating | 15582nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–19 | 21–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–11 | 18–11 |
| Underdog | 5–8 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 22–11–1 | 14–17–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–1–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 19–23 NYY in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 42.