Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Pete AlonsoBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cade PovichPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Judge singled to center, Wells scored, Rice to second.2–7
- 7Rosario singled to center, Judge scored, Bellinger to second.2–6
- 7Beavers grounded out to pitcher, Alonso scored, Basallo to third.2–5
- 2Rice homered to right center (380 feet), Grisham scored and Goldschmidt scored.1–5
- 2Caballero homered to left (397 feet).1–2
- 2Alonso homered to right (367 feet).1–1
- 1Bellinger doubled to right, Judge scored, Bellinger to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 62%
- ML BAL +153 / NYY -186
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 62.2%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -165
- BAL +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.0 – 5.0 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −11 | BAL: Cade Povich: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +86 Elo | NYY 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 60.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.42nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +1.53rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 14th of 306–7 | Road vs home | 8–58th of 30 |
| 20th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149321st of 30 |
| 23rd of 301486 | Elo rating | 15522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–16 | 18–13 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–11 | 15–11 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 20–11 | 12–17–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 19–20 NYY in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 39.