Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Lance McCullers Jr.Pitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Orioles- Leody TaverasBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Brandon YoungPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Mayo hit sacrifice fly to left, Cowser scored.11–5
- 7Henderson doubled to right, Taveras scored, Wilson to third.11–4
- 5Shewmake scored on Foster wild pitch, Matthews to third.11–3
- 5Shewmake scored on Foster wild pitch, Matthews to third on wild pitch by Foster.11–3
- 4Taveras tripled to right, Alonso scored and O'Neill scored.10–3
- 4Alonso doubled to left, Ward scored.10–1
- 4Diaz singled to left, Paredes scored, Walker to third.10–0
- 4Harris hit sacrifice fly to center, Alvarez scored, Paredes to third.9–0
- 4Walker singled to right, Matthews scored, Paredes to second, Alvarez to third.8–0
- 4Paredes singled to right, Johnson scored, Alvarez to second, Matthews to third.7–0
- 2Alvarez homered to center (424 feet).6–0
- 1Smith homered to center (414 feet), Harris scored and Diaz scored.5–0
- 1Harris singled to right, Alvarez scored and Paredes scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 56%
- ML HOU +119 / BAL -144
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- BAL: Elo 54.7%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- BAL -129
- HOU +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.2 – 4.8 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | −9 | HOU: Lance McCullers Jr.: team allows 0.90 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BAL: Brandon Young: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +32 Elo | BAL 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.713th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.1 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 29th of 303–12 | Road vs home | 9–818th of 30 |
| 28th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 149322nd of 30 |
| 24th of 301484 | Elo rating | 148920th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–20 | 15–15 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–11 | 10–10 |
| Underdog | 7–9 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 22–9 | 19–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 12–10 BAL in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 22.