Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching3.1 IP, 8 ER, 2 K
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting3-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Brandon YoungPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rutschman singled to left, Henderson scored, Ward to second.3–10
- 6Mayer doubled to right, Abreu scored.3–9
- 5Mayo homered to left center (397 feet).2–9
- 5Rafaela grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Durbin scored, Narváez out at second.2–8
- 4Rutschman homered to right (393 feet), Ward scored.1–8
- 3Basallo homered to right center (395 feet).1–6
- 2Rutschman grounded into fielder's choice to third, Henderson scored, Ward out at second.1–5
- 2Abreu homered to right center (403 feet).1–4
- 1Beavers homered to right center (411 feet).0–4
- 1Rutschman homered to right center (395 feet), Ward scored.0–3
- 1Henderson homered to right (410 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 53%
- ML BOS +104 / BAL -126
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- BAL: Elo 48.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -114
- BOS +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.1 – 4.4 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −13 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Brandon Young: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +9 Elo | BOS 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.215th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–8 | Road vs home | 6–620th of 30 |
| 6th of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 149320th of 30 |
| 11th of 301509 | Elo rating | 148821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–18 | 12–13 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–13 | 7–8 |
| Underdog | 1–5 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 12–13 | 15–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 19–20 BAL in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 39.