Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Coby MayoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Royals- Carter JensenBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Isbel homered to right (406 feet), Massey scored.8–6
- 6Jensen homered to center (421 feet).8–4
- 6Mayo homered to left center (452 feet), Jackson scored and Cowser scored.8–3
- 6Jackson singled to left, Basallo scored and Taveras scored.5–3
- 6Taveras singled to right, Alonso scored, Taveras to second, Basallo to third.3–3
- 4Thomas singled to center, Jensen scored, Caglianone to second.2–3
- 4Jensen singled to center, Pasquantino scored.2–2
- 1Pasquantino homered to right (422 feet).2–1
- 1Alonso homered to right center (410 feet), Ward scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 53%
- ML BAL +105 / KC -126
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- KC: Elo 54.2%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- KC -114
- BAL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.6 – 4.9 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +2 | BAL: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +29 Elo | KC 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.428th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.429th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 20th of 305–7 | Road vs home | 6–619th of 30 |
| 20th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 150413th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301486 | Elo rating | 148921st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–13 | 11–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 14–10 | 9–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 12–10 KC in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 22.