Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shane BazPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kris BubicPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Garcia scored on Helsley wild pitch.5–6
- 9Garcia scored on Helsley wild pitch.5–6
- 8Massey homered to right (412 feet).5–5
- 8Rutschman homered to left center (394 feet), Henderson scored.5–4
- 7Witt Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Isbel scored.3–4
- 5Pasquantino hit sacrifice fly to left, Garcia scored.3–3
- 5Garcia singled to center, Isbel scored.3–2
- 2Massey hit sacrifice fly to right, Jensen scored.3–1
- 2Mayo homered to left (439 feet), Jackson scored and Wilson scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 54%
- ML BAL +109 / KC -131
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- KC: Elo 52.7%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- KC -119
- BAL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.3 – 4.7 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −1 | BAL: Shane Baz: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Kris Bubic: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +19 Elo | KC 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.329th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 19th of 305–6 | Road vs home | 5–623rd of 30 |
| 19th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 150512th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301487 | Elo rating | 148821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–13 | 11–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–10 | 8–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 12–9 KC in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 21.