Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Leody TaverasBatting1-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Royals- Nick LoftinBatting2-2, 3 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 12Loftin doubled to left, Pasquantino scored, Thomas scored and Perez scored.7–5
- 12Taveras homered to center (419 feet), Basallo scored, Jackson scored and Wilson scored.7–2
- 12Basallo singled to left, Mayo scored.3–2
- 11Witt Jr. singled to left, Collins scored.2–2
- 11Beavers singled to right, Alexander scored.2–1
- 9Basallo singled to center, Beavers scored, Alonso to third.1–1
- 2Caglianone homered to center (437 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 51%
- ML BAL -115 / KC -105
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- BAL: Elo 46.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BAL -104
- KC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.5 – 4.5 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +4 | BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +23 Elo | KC 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.230th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Road vs home | 5–518th of 30 |
| 20th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 150510th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301485 | Elo rating | 149021st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–13 | 11–11 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 2–5 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 12–10 | 7–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 11–9 KC in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 20.