Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Brice MatthewsBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan WeissPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Pete AlonsoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shane BazPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Matthews singled to right, Harris scored.3–5
- 8Harris tripled to right, Walker scored.2–5
- 7Rutschman singled to center, Henderson scored.1–5
- 5Alonso homered to right center (380 feet), Ward scored.1–4
- 5Matthews homered to right center (387 feet).1–2
- 1Basallo doubled to right, Rutschman scored.0–2
- 1Rutschman singled to left, Henderson scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 54%
- ML HOU +109 / BAL -131
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- BAL: Elo 53.7%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -119
- HOU +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.3 – 4.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −2 | HOU: Kai-Wei Teng: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · BAL: Shane Baz: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +25 Elo | BAL 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.517th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 5.023rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–10 | Road vs home | 7–821st of 30 |
| 29th of 301483 | Opponent Elo | 149521st of 30 |
| 20th of 301489 | Elo rating | 148523rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–18 | 13–15 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–11 | 8–10 |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 21–8 | 18–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 12–8 BAL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 20.