Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Willson ContrerasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Orioles- Taylor WardBatting2-3
- Albert SuarezPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Contreras homered to center (418 feet), Kiner-Falefa scored and Rafaela scored.17–1
- 9Durbin homered to left (386 feet), Duran scored.14–1
- 9Monasterio homered to center (388 feet), Contreras scored, Abreu scored and Story scored.12–1
- 9Contreras singled to left, Rafaela scored.8–1
- 7Taveras grounded out to first, O'Neill scored, Jackson to third.7–1
- 5Wong doubled to right, Durbin scored, Story scored and Monasterio scored.7–0
- 4Contreras hit sacrifice fly to left, Kiner-Falefa scored.4–0
- 2Rafaela singled to left, Wong scored, Kiner-Falefa to second.3–0
- 2Kiner-Falefa singled to left, Durbin scored, Wong to third.2–0
- 2Durbin doubled to right, Monasterio scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 53%
- ML BOS +103 / BAL -124
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- BAL: Elo 51.3%, market 52.9%
- Fair odds
- BAL -112
- BOS +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.4 – 3.6 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +7 | BOS: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +9 Elo | BAL 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 52.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–9 | Road vs home | 7–613th of 30 |
| 6th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 149421st of 30 |
| 15th of 301506 | Elo rating | 149120th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–19 | 13–13 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–13 | 8–8 |
| Underdog | 1–6 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–13 | 16–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 19–21 BAL in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 40.