Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting3-4
- Peter LambertPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Jeremiah JacksonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Matthews singled to center, Altuve scored, Diaz to second.3–10
- 8Diaz singled to center, Paredes scored, Altuve to third.2–10
- 7Jackson homered to left center (380 feet), Rutschman scored, Alonso scored and Beavers scored.1–10
- 7Beavers walked, Ward scored, Alonso to second, Rutschman to third.1–6
- 7Vázquez singled to center, Matthews scored, Harris to second.1–5
- 5Rutschman homered to left center (397 feet), Alexander scored, Henderson scored and Ward scored.0–5
- 4Jackson doubled to left, Alonso scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 55%
- ML HOU +113 / BAL -136
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- BAL: Elo 51.8%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- BAL -123
- HOU +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.3 – 4.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −7 | HOU: Peter Lambert: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BAL: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +13 Elo | BAL 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 29th of 303–11 | Road vs home | 8–817th of 30 |
| 29th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 149420th of 30 |
| 21st of 301487 | Elo rating | 148622nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–19 | 14–15 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–11 | 9–10 |
| Underdog | 7–8 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 21–9 | 18–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 12–9 BAL in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 21.