Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Blaze AlexanderBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Trey GibsonPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Yankees- Jasson DominguezBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Max FriedPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Domínguez doubled to left, Judge scored, Bellinger to third.3–11
- 8Chisholm Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Goldschmidt scored.3–10
- 8Goldschmidt singled to center, McMahon scored and Caballero scored.3–9
- 8Grisham hit sacrifice fly to left, Wells scored.3–7
- 8Domínguez homered to right center (348 feet), Chisholm Jr. scored.3–6
- 6McMahon reached on infield single to first, Domínguez scored.3–4
- 4Jackson grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, O'Neill scored, Taveras out at second, Mayo to third.3–3
- 4Taveras reached on infield single to second, Alonso scored, Mayo to second, O'Neill to third.2–3
- 3Judge homered to center (413 feet), Rice scored.1–3
- 3Alexander singled to right, Wilson scored, Alexander out stretching at second.1–1
- 1Rice homered to right (379 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 71%
- ML BAL +229 / NYY -286
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- NYY: Elo 63.3%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -244
- BAL +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.5 – 5.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +3 | BAL: Trey Gibson (no track record yet) · NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +95 Elo | NYY 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 65.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.18th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.42nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.73rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 17th of 306–9 | Road vs home | 10–54th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149222nd of 30 |
| 25th of 301482 | Elo rating | 15562nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–18 | 20–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–11 | 17–11 |
| Underdog | 5–7 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 21–11–1 | 13–17–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–1–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 19–22 NYY in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 41.