Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Pete AlonsoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Cody BellingerBatting4-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Chisholm Jr. singled to right, Judge scored on error and Bellinger scored, Chisholm Jr. safe at second on fielding error by right fielder O'Neill.4–9
- 7Bellinger reached on infield single to shortstop, Rice scored, Judge to third.4–7
- 7Ward grounded out to first, Beavers scored.4–6
- 6Basallo doubled to right, Henderson scored, O'Neill to third.3–6
- 6Alonso grounded into double play, third to second to first, Ward scored, Rutschman out at second, Henderson to third.2–6
- 5Bellinger homered to right (354 feet).1–6
- 4Grisham homered to right center (412 feet), McMahon scored.1–5
- 4Alonso homered to left (413 feet).1–3
- 3Bellinger doubled to center, Grisham scored, Judge to third.0–3
- 3Caballero scored on a passed ball by Rutschman, Grisham to third on passed ball by Rutschman.0–2
- 3Caballero scored on a passed ball by Rutschman, Grisham to third on passed ball by Rutschman.0–2
- 2Bellinger homered to right center (363 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 60%
- ML BAL +141 / NYY -171
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 61.7%, market 60.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -152
- BAL +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.8 – 4.7 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | 0 | BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +83 Elo | NYY 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 60.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.08th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.41st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +1.63rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 17th of 306–8 | Road vs home | 9–56th of 30 |
| 20th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149222nd of 30 |
| 24th of 301484 | Elo rating | 15542nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–17 | 19–13 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–11 | 16–11 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 20–11–1 | 12–17–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–1–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 19–21 NYY in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 40.