Texas Rangers at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Ezequiel DuranBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching6.1 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Yankees- Ryan McMahonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Elmer RodriguezPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Burger grounded out to shortstop, Duran scored.4–7
- 8Goldschmidt homered to right center (366 feet).3–7
- 7Bellinger doubled to right, McMahon scored and Caballero scored, Judge to third.3–6
- 6Chisholm Jr. homered to right center (413 feet).3–4
- 2McMahon homered to right center (359 feet), Goldschmidt scored.3–3
- 1Bellinger doubled to right, Judge scored.3–1
- 1Jung scored, Osuna to second, Burger to third on wild pitch by Rodríguez.3–0
- 1Jung scored on Rodríguez wild pitch, Osuna to second on wild pitch by Rodríguez, Burger to third on wild pitch by Rodríguez.3–0
- 1Duran singled to right, Seager scored, Jung to second.2–0
- 1Pederson hit sacrifice fly to center, Carter scored, Seager to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 55%
- ML TEX +113 / NYY -136
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 58.5%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -123
- TEX +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.3 – 4.7 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | 0 | TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Elmer Rodriguez: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +60 Elo | NYY 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 5.52nd of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.32nd of 30 |
| 12th of 300.0 | Margin | +2.22nd of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 14th of 309–10 | Road vs home | 12–53rd of 30 |
| 6th of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 149122nd of 30 |
| 13th of 301507 | Elo rating | 15612nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–18 | 22–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 19–11 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 13–19–2 | 15–17–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 10–12 NYY in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 22.