Texas Rangers at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Judge homered to center (399 feet).6–1
- 4Seager singled to right, McCutchen scored, Nimmo to second.6–0
- 4Duran hit sacrifice fly to center, Burger scored, McCutchen to third.5–0
- 3Carter homered to right (368 feet), Duran scored.4–0
- 3Duran doubled to left, Nimmo scored.2–0
- 1Seager homered to right (350 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 60%
- ML TEX +141 / NYY -171
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- NYY: Elo 59.0%, market 60.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -152
- TEX +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.8 – 4.7 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −8 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +63 Elo | NYY 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 60.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 5.52nd of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.32nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +2.21st of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 15th of 309–11 | Road vs home | 13–53rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 149123rd of 30 |
| 13th of 301505 | Elo rating | 15622nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–19 | 23–13 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 20–11 |
| Underdog | 10–9 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 14–19–2 | 16–17–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 10–13 NYY in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 23.