New York Yankees at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Jose CaballeroBatting2-3
- Max FriedPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Brandon LockridgeBatting2-2, 2 RBI
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 7Contreras singled to center, Ortiz scored.0–6
- 3Lockridge singled to center, Vaughn scored.0–5
- 2Chourio singled to center, Lockridge scored, Ortiz to second.0–4
- 2Ortiz grounded into fielder's choice to third, Rengifo scored, Frelick out at second, Lockridge to third.0–3
- 2Frelick singled to center, Vaughn scored, Lockridge to second, Rengifo to third.0–2
- 2Lockridge singled to right, Sánchez scored, Rengifo to second, Vaughn to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 54%
- ML NYY -128 / MIL +107
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- NYY: Elo 51.4%, market 53.7%
- Fair odds
- NYY -116
- MIL +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.9 – 3.6 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −6 | NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +10 Elo | NYY 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 58.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 53.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 5.26th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.1 | Margin | +1.35th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3012–6 | Road vs home | 10–810th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149025th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301562 | Elo rating | 15444th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–14 | 20–15 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–12 | 11–11 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders | 17–18–3 | 18–16–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 6–3 MIL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.